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tv   MSNBC Live  MSNBC  November 3, 2012 11:00am-12:00pm PDT

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[ male announcer ] marie callender's puts everything you've grown to love about sunday dinner into each of her pot pies. tender white meat chicken and vegetables in a crust made from scratch. marie callender's. it's time to savor. we'll win ohio. we'll win this election. we'll strengthen the bonds between us and reaffirm the spirit that makes the united states of america the greatest nation on earth. >> i'm counting on your clear eyes and full hearts to make sure we can't lose on tuesday. thank you so very much. just three days until election day and the candidates are crisscrossing this country, clamoring for the undecided vote.
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and, very good saturday afternoon to you from the nation's capital. i'm craig melvin. you're watching msnbc, the place for politics. we're here in d.c. to cover this historic election and it comes at a time when millions are until trying to put their lives back together. we will dive into the latest news from the world of politics in just a moment but first, those let's get you caught up on the very latest on the aftermath of hurricane sandy. about 2.5 million people remain without power in the aftermath of that storm. 109 deaths nationwide have been attributed to sandy's wrath. those numbers could rise. at least 40 of those deaths were in new york city. that's where mayor michael bloomberg relented and cancelled the new york city marathon. 40,000 runners were expected to compete sunday. many folks around this country especially in that city believe holding the race, though, would be inappropriate and could de y
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we welcome back to msnbc. let's go right now to chris jansing who is in ohio following the president. >> good morning. or good afternoon. it is quiet here but a big crowd for president obama just an hour ago. and there was a key message from the president and that vote. this is a state that, of course, is all about turn out, one of the key battleground state. in 2008, 76% of residents of this county voted and listen to the final numbers. barack obama 49.58%. john mccain 48.74%. and the focus was on white working class voters. the president doing much better here in ohio than in any other battleground state and he talked a lot about the auto industry and the largely discredited ad by the romney campaign that the obama campaign thinks has backfired on them. but he also brought up hurricane sandy which he sees as an
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example of everyone working together. here's what the president had to say just a short time ago. ♪ >> neighbors helping neighbors cope with tragedy. leaders of different political parties working together to fix what's broken. [ applause ] you know, it's a spirit that says no matter how bad a storm is, no matter how tough times are, we're all in this together. >> reporter: and the president also talking about ohio and how important it is and he's going to be here several more times over the next 72 hours. mitt romney too, who is going to be in cleveland at the ix center, the largest convention center in this area, and one of the things that they are pointing to is that they say they had large and enthusiastic crowds. they were down near cincinnati last night. they had about 30,000 people.
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they also say they believe they have strength and independence. but on both sides they are getting serious about this final push to get out the vote, lots of people going door-to-door, making phone calls. there's a lot of mailings in people's mail boxes today and we'll see right now early voting is under way and one of the final messages from here was that there was still a polling place next door that was open for another hour after this event finished and the president urging people not only to go themselves and vote but bring your neighbor, bring your mother, bring your boyfriend, bring your girlfriend. me slay. >> chris jansing, thank you so much. we'll check back with you later. we'll take a quick break and then be back with craig melvin. try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable,
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a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying and tomorrow we will up it yet again. welcome back. joining us from midtown manhattan is katie. you were at a gas station. we've been seeing these crazy
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lines. police having to be brought in to break up fights at gas station. tell us about the situation where you are. >> reporter: police are at every single gas station that's open both here in new york and new jersey. there was a reported fight out in queens yesterday a guy pulled a gun on some other guy who was cutting him in line. the guy who pulled the gun is facing serious charges and jail time. that's the worst fight we've heard of. most stations i've been at, i've been at a bunch in the past few days have been pretty orderly because there are police. this one right now has a very long line. hard to see how long it goes because it's literally far they are than the eye can go. we're at 44th and 10th in manhattan and at one point this line went down 26 streets. a lot of new york city blocks. that line is getting that long right now. this gas station right here filled up this morning at 5:00 a.m. by 10:00 a.m. they were completely out of gas.
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closed. re-opened just a moment ago they got another shipment and starting to go again. over in new jersey, you're seeing the same sort of thing. very long lines. that's why governor christie has instituted rationing. everybody who has a license plate that end in an even number can get gas on even number days. if you have an odd numbered license plate you can get gas on odd number days. here in new york, senator schumer said he's going open up some mobile gas stations where people can get 10 gallons per person. they are hoping that will ease some of the pressure. the lights are back on in much of manhattan including lower manhattan and they can open gas stations now and start pumping again. that should help as well. governor cuomo here in new york said 8 million gallons were delivered. 28 million gallons are on the way. at its core, melissa, this is not a gas shortage, even though the rationing harkens back to jimmy carter and the gas
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shortage, this is not a gas shortage, this is a power shortage. if you don't have power at the pumps you can't pump the gas. if you don't have gas you can't bring the gas in from other areas because the roads are blocked. the ports have just been re-opened in new york and the restrictions lifted. hopefully once the power comes on and once the fuel lines are re-opened this will start to go away. until then it will be tight in many areas. luckily for the most part we've been seeing some pretty calm people although around new york and i'm sure you've seen this as you've gone out today around new york people are very tired. the guy behind the register looks like he hasn't slept in days even when you go out for coffee. >> he probably hasn't. new yorkers aren't known for being long on patience to start with, katie. >> they are not known for that but they have been patient. everyone is work together. they are just tired and rather be at home sleeping with lights and power and clean water that's actually hot.
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>> exactly. thank you so much. let's go now to msnbc's craig melvin in washington. >> thank you so much. had some technical problems but we're back online here in our nation's capital. we turn back to politics. our political headlines, frenetic, frenzy final weekend with all the candidates and their surrogates out in full force right now. mitt romney just wrapped up an event end dubuque, iowa a state where most polls gives the president a narrow lead. paul ryan wind ul up a rally in pennsylvania where the romney campaign is trying to make a late pushed. the combined events of mitt romney and paul ryan will give the campaign in seven different states today. the president also had a whirlwind schedule today going to iowa, ohio, virginia, going to wisconsin as well today. vice president joe biden has two events in colorado, one outside denver, the other in pueblo.
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the candidates are also taking the fight to the printed page today with duelling op-eds in the "wall street journal." meanwhile back in d.c. this morning president obama at fema headquarters where he met with officials and talked about disaster relief in the wake of hurricane sandy. >> our hearts continue to go out to those families who have been affected and have lost loved ones. that's obviously heartbreaking. but i'm confident that we can continue to make progress as long as state, local and federal officials -- >> so, one critical thing. one critical thing to watch in this very busy final homestretch here, the closing arguments that the candidates are making, the single big picture message is that they are hoping voters take to heart come tuesday. here to talk about that and a whole lot more bill schneider resident scholar at the washington think tank and our political reporter from "the washington post."
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good afternoon to both of you. bill, let's start with you. msnbc's first read called this statement the obama campaign closing argument let's put it on the screen. quote, while governor romney promotes the same policies that failed our country and ran the middle class into the ground and calls it change president obama will point the way forward to real change that will boost the middle class and create a stronger future for all americans. couple of interesting things here, bill schneider pushing back against the idea that romney represents change and an appeal as well to the middle class. how effective is that closing argument? >> well, basically he's arguing don't go backwards we want to go forward. that's the theme of his campaign. but we're hearing something also interesting in these closing arguments. both sides are claiming they can deliver unity. that's something that got president obama elected. remember when he first gave a speech in 2004 at the democratic convention he said there's no liberal america, there's no conservative america, there's
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the united states of america. he's going back to that argument and the terrible storm sandy the hurricane actually helped him make that argument because he got praise from two republican governors of new jersey and virginia for his efficient handling of the relief effort after that storm. so it's helping him make the case that he can bring the country together even though most his critics say he failed to do that. >> that's interesting. here's the thing. even if the president is re-elected, it's not as if the house is going to change dramatically in terms of its makeup, he'll still have a narrow margin in the senate. how will he go about doing that? how does he bring about that change? >> right. one of the things you might actually see here and you pointed to that is that this could be a status quo election if in fact president obama is re-elected, it's likely that the house will remain in republican hands and the senate will remain in democratic hands, very narrowly. also it's very much back to the
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drawing board in terms of trying to forge some way forward in terms of big legislation. big, big things on the list here to be done. the fiscal cliff. looking at medicare. looking at medicaid. look at these huge deficits that we have coming up. so the president, if he is re-elected will have some huge challenges. his theory all along has been if in fact he's re-elected that the fever among republicans to essentially say no to everything will break. that this election will be a referendum on the way they have governed or failed to govern over the last four to eight years and in that way they will be able to forging some compromise. i think one area that folks talk about that might actually people might be able to make headway around is immigration, especially if you have a situation after this election where republicans don't do well among latinos that could be some common ground that both of these parties could find. >> bill, the romney campaign is arguing that the president's so-called midwest fire wall is
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in trouble. take a listen, this is the campaign political the director, this is him on wednesday. take a listen. >> the fire wall that i think they talked about was iowa, wisconsin and ohio. right now their fire wall is burning. >> that's the romney campaign's political director, three states mentioned wisconsin, ohio, iowa. the same three states that the president has decided to visit on his last day before the election. how worried is the obama campaign about those states? >> well, i think they've been worried of all of those states because they are very close even though the polls shows obama slightly ahead by no means a safe margin. he does not have a strong lead anywhere. i think the romney campaign is really worried about ohio and that's why they suddenly turned up their visits in advertising in pennsylvania, michigan, minnesota, states they don't have much of a chance to carry but they need ohio insurance because so far even if the lead is very small ohio is looking
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pretty good for the president. >> you know, i'm glad bill brought that up because i was going to get to that in just a few minutes. ohio, governor romney hasn't led in a major poll in that state. right now you take an average of all the polls that look at the buckeye state, the president enjoys a lead there, some of those leads more substantial than others. is it at this point the buckeye state is it a wash for the governor? >> well, you know, i think he certainly had some trouble there gaining ground. he tried a new tactic over these last couple of days talking about the auto bailout, not a good look for him because of that op-ed that he wrote in 2008 titled let detroit go bankrupt. so when he even mentions the auto bailout it only turns the focus back to him in a have all of these local papers there really point to the fact that he has this ad out alleging jeep is transferring zwrobs china basically calling it a flat out lie. this hasn't been a good look to him. he moved to pennsylvania. as we know over the last many
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elections pennsylvania has been a solidly blue state. you see republican candidates in the last minutes of this campaign, last stage of this campaign historically going to pennsylvania in a bit of a head fake but so far pennsylvania has been like a great white whale for republican candidates. it's a big fat state, 20 electoral votes. i don't think there's much of a chance for romney to take that state out of obama's column and he needs to look elsewhere. i think it's been surprising that romney hasn't been able to expand the map very much to a place like -- to a place like pennsylvania, to a place like michigan. i think at this point he's really scrambling to figure out how he can get 270. >> tomorrow paul ryan will be in ohio, colorado and minnesota. i'm curious about minnesota, that last state. seems to be firmly in the obama column. today the obama campaign announcing bill clinton will also be going to minnesota tomorrow. is there a battle brewing for minnesota now? >> well, there ought not be.
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minnesota has voted democratic since 1972 because it voted for walter monday dale one of the few states that voted for walter monday dale. it's pretty reliably democratic although republicans have been competitive in state elections. is there a battle brewing? i don't think so. again what the romney campaign is doing is looking for ohio insurance. they have not been running ahead in ohio so they are looking every where they k-minnesota, michigan, pennsylvania to try to find some other state that can replace ohio. >> bill schneider of the third way and emily from "the washington post." appreciate your time. thank you both. the east coast starting to slow a pain staking process of recovering from the devastation of hurricane sandy. new york's staten island one of the areas hardest hit of the storm, 22 of new york's 40 fatalities were on staten island. richard lui has been there for several days now.
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he joins me this afternoon. richard earlier this week, the congress minnesota that represents that particular area describes to me as the forgotten borough. what's the latest on the recovery effort on staten island. >> reporter: very good day to you. the latest is they are still digging out. the issue at hand is healing. when you were here it was recovery and trying to determine what was the amount of damage now they are going through the healing phase here on staten island, specifically we're in the new door communities. this is a church. they brought together four groups, one group here is actually helping with health needs. they are giving out these toot paste napkins, towel here. they are mapping out where they want to go in the coming days. they have these items like towels, brought in water, clothes here. bring those items in here. trying to get it out to those who don't have places to stay. don't have food.
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simple things as you know just keeping clean. people bringing in food. second ago we had some -- they are still here. these are still warm from dominick's next door. we had pizzaerlier. spaghetti line. what's interesting here, craig, when you talk with the pastor who runs these four organizations today, he says the collection of people that he's got is quite interesting. take a listen to what he said earlier. >> not only have our own people contributed, we've had people who i've never seen before from the community, all different types of backgrounds come and say we want network with you to help people. >> like what? >> it's interesting. we're a christian church and the other day i was working shoulder to shoulder with a woman who was a muslim to help put together a bag. i thought that was pretty interesting. >> forgotten, craig not in this spot here in new door, staten island. they had hundreds of volunteers, 12 our shifts, 3 1/2 days
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straight. a lot of good energy here right now. >> it's good richard lui to see folks coming together on staten island. arguably the hardest hit of the areas affected. while i have you here i do want to ask you about something else not to put you in an awkward spot considering your location. there had been a fair amount of flack given to the red cross earlier this week from residents that i talked to from local officials as well who said that the response by the red cross was not as swift as they would have liked for it to be. what your hearing about that and your hearing anything from the red cross? >> well, what we're hearing from those that are hear in staten island today, they are thinking about looking forward here, craig. there's still that overflow of, well disgruntlement. what will happen next. when will we have heat. when will we have electricity. that was the sentiment as people continued to wait in line for gasoline to take care of their generators. it's cold overnight.
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30 degree weather. sometimes you get sun. we saw about an hour of that earlier. i city think that is arc that's going lower. what we're seeing is energy start took more positive. people trying to think how to make things better. the pastor was clear in saying hey this is a is a lod bowl of volunteers that have come together from all over, new jersey, new york state and marathon runners are here today trying to help out because now they are not running as you know. >> richard lui, we will leave it right there my friend. thanks very much for that, the very latest on the recovery effort on staten island. thank you. folks, if you would like to find a way to help the victims of hurricane sandy all you have to do is go to our website nbc we have a complete list there of reputtable charities and organizations who need your help. number one or number two? who did mitt romney really want for his presidential nominee? we'll talk about this. this is a very interesting
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story. plus with three days to go can either campaign really call the election at this point? our war room is coming up as well. you're watching msnbc, the place for politics. where others fail, droid powers through. introducing the new droid razr maxx hd by motorola. now more than ever droid does. to start her own interior design business. she's got a growing list of clients she keeps in touch with
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sunshine states 49 to 47%. so much of this race, of course, depends on these two states. ohio and florida. for some insight i want to bring in our nbc news deputy political editor. let's start with ohio good friend. if mitt romney can't win in ohio what would his path to 270, what would his path to victory have to look like. >> makes it very narrow for mitt romney. if president obama wins ohio he's at 261 electoral votes based on our battleground map. if mitt romney gets virginia and florida he's stuck to 248. new hampshire where he owns a home but the president probably a finger on the scale now we're at 261-261 and we've been talking all along about the midwest and importance of ohio, wisconsin and iowa and the necessity for mitt romney to win
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two of those three. look at that right there. you got those 16 electoral votes between those two and if somehow mitt romney or barack obama were to pick up wisconsin, boom you've got president obama at 271 and even if mitt romney were to get iowa he's only at 267, craig the importance of the industrial midwest. >> all right. you mentioned florida. let's dig a little bit deep near to florida. based on that poll neck and neck race. if president obama, if he does not win florida what does that mean for his path to victory? >> of course the president still can win even if mitt romney were to win florida and virginia and again it all comes down to ohio. because like we just laid out that last path if it becomes very difficult for the president -- for mitt romney to win if he loses florida but with florida, again we got the ohio plus strategy, i like to call it because the president has to win ohio and then he needs one more.
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he could get colorado, he could get wisconsin and he's right over the top and wisconsin is the one right now that they are looking at, craig. >> for months, president obama winning pennsylvania that's been the theory. romney campaign now says it believes it has a shot at winning that state. if governor romney pulls out a win at pennsylvania how does that shake up the electoral map? >> that would shake it up. pennsylvania now we got ourselves a big state race, mitt romney opening up that pathway. the big problem for mitt romney has been ohio this entire time. that auto bailout messaging and right there is why we see mitt romney potentially needing something like pennsylvania but if he gets pennsylvania well now it's a race for these other electoral votes. if romney were to get florida you see that 255 in virginia, 268 but still short. so he could pick up maybe the four electoral votes in new hampshire where we have a toss up but maybe a finger on the scale for the president.
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maybe if romney is able to pick up colorado then he suddenly is at 277. but president obama, we have seen in recent days be maybe, have a little bit of an edge in virginia and again where are we looking but right here again in the industrial midwest with wisconsin and iowa it's a big key because if we were to give romney now wisconsin he's over the top at 274 even if president obama were to get iowa, if the president were able to get wisconsin then now he's over the top. so you can see where we go. there's a lot of paths. if pennsylvania were picked up it changes things quite a bit. >> i love the map, my friend. always good have you, especially good today since at any moment you'll be a new father. we appreciate you carving out some time fours. good luck my friend. >> thank you so much. >> folks, we would love for you to join us on election night. we'll of course have all day coverage and into the night from
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democracy plaza our election headquarters at rockefeller center in the heart of new york city. if you're in the big apple join us. it's free. it's all open to the public. check out our website for more. in a tight presidential election the race can hinge on seemingly small things. it can hinge on a single county in a swing state, it can hinge on a key demographic or maybe on something like this in florida, republicans trying to oust three state supreme court justice accusing them of defending the president's affordable care act. "the washington post" calling it a high stakes political contest unlike any florida has seen with funding coming in in part from the billionaire conservatives the coke brothers. with me now, an msnbc political analyst and a professor here in d.c. at georgetown university and michelle bernard political analyst and founder of the bernard center for women, politics and public policy. good afternoon to boston you.
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>> hi there. >> doug i'll start with you. we pay attention to the presidential candidates. generally speaking how much of an impact can something like a fight over judges, how much of an impact can something like this happen when it comes to voter turnout? >> kit have a huge impact especially on the local level and in this case on state level. what's at stake here are a couple of things. first of all to what degree will the supreme court remain independent from either political party. in florida, in the '70s they stopped voting for supreme court justice and they were being afrointd a nominating list that the governor then would appeal to in order to appoint the justices and then they stood for retention. the coke brothers another far right-wing group here have tar get these particular justices because they want to really impose willy-nilly their will upon florida. you know, they control the legislature, they control the governor's office now they want to control the supreme -- now t
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will be overloaded with people who can be appointed by a republican governor. so that will have a huge impact on stand your ground laws and have a huge impact on what happens in that particular locale. those local politic, tip o'neill said all politics are local will have a huge impact upon the people in florida and the rest of the nation will be watching as a litmus test to determine how the receivism of the coke brothers and far right-wing groups will have an impact on this kind of race. >> michelle, this is a headline from the "wall street journal" this week and i'm going to put it up here. election may hinge on latino turnout here. barack obama's re-election hopes hinge more than any previous presidential contender on the latino vote. if the president is re-elected, michelle how much of a role will that specific voting bloc play? >> it's going to have a huge impact on the election in just a
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few days. latinos are the largest growing minority in the united states. they are also, you know, 16% of the electorate. they are particularly important in all of the battleground states we're talking about. nevada, colorado, virginia, in particular and we have seen that there's been so much damage to the republican brand this year not only with, you know, with voting blocs such as women and african-americans but particularly with latinos who by the way most people will remember voted in huge numbers for george bush in 2000. he received 35% of the hispanic vote in 2000. and in 2012 latinos no longer feel at home within the republican party of today. so barack obama, you can see it's a big part of his coalition. we'll be going out knocking on doors and doing everything he can to get the hispanic vote particularly in swing states. >> michael let's broaden this thing out a bit. there's a headline from politico that got my attention this
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morning. obama's demographic gamble, quote obama is likely to get blown out among white voters on election day narrowly lose independents nationwide and yet may still win based on historic margins among groups that off ten lean democratic but don't vote in high waits. latin jobs african-american, young people and unmarried women as well. do you see this unfolding come tuesday? >> it's always between case as last time around obama never won the majority of white voters here but he won a significant enough margin in combination with latinos, with african-americans, of course, overwhelmingly voting for him, the female vote which continues to be a strong measure in his column. and of course unmarried whoerm a bit disgruntled with the first debate but now resigned so to speak. no question that kind of, if you will, coalition that obama has been able to carve out will be a
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significant factor in his re-election. >> we'll have to leave it there. i wish i had more time. thanks to you both on a saturday afternoon. >> thank you. >> any time. >> on this day in 1962 the world was reacting to the news that the united states and the soviet union had finally found a way to the end cuban crisis. if you had turned on a television 50 years ago today you may have seen this. >> there is one way you can indicate your devotion to freedom. there is one way in which we can show how strongly we believe in our democracy. next tuesday november 6th is election day. i hope every american will turn out and vote. every american, every member of his family. and show the world how strongly we believe in freedom, how strongly we believe in our country. aspirin, really?
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communications directory and chip saltsman. karen let's start there. how different would this campaign had been had chris christie been mitt romney's running mate instead of paul ryan? >> the strategist in me says it would have been very different but the american in me is glad to see that both men were able to do the job they were supposed to do this week and i'm sure residents of new jersey are grateful for that. >> chip what do you think? hurricane sandy aside what do you think? >> think these are great stories that's beyond inside baseball, inside the dugout stuff and it's always fun to speculate what if. craig, i was always under the impression you were governor romney's number one choice. couldn't get out of the msnbc contract. you never know. these are fun stories to talk about. i think at the end of the day governor romney got who we wanted. governor romney feeds off of paul ryan's energy.
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>> let's talk about tuesday here chip. based on the polling that we just reported out of florida, the polling that we've been reporting out of ohio for some time now, it would seem at least, it would seem as if governor romney's path to 270 is far more narrow than it was a month and a half ago. >> i would even say a month and a half ago it was a steeper uphill climb. his campaign has done a read job. we can tell you we don't believe these polls. the bottom line is florida, we know he has to put in his pocket. he has to get virginia. if he gets those two there's a path with ohio a lot easier without ohio a narrow path. got to go wisconsin, colorado and maybe iowa or new hampshire. so we got a lot of work to do in the next couple of days. he has the momentum going into tuesday right now. >> karen finny i imagine you would disagree? >> i'm sure you're not going surprised to find i do only in that if you take one of the numbers that i've been looking
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sat our data point if you look at the early vote numbers in battleground states and look at the percentage of people who voted and where those votes are and the percentage that mitt romney has to win in states like ohio, florida, iowa in order to win the state it's over 50% and almost 60% in some of those case. so, you know, is there a path? of course because there's always a path because human behavior is unpredictable. i want does look mighty tight. >> it would also explain why we see governor romney in places like, surrogates in places like minnesota, in places like pennsylvania, in places like wisconsin at this point with 72 hours to go trying to expand the map. it seems at least a very odd strategy to a lot of folks. >> it's a a little bit of a head fake. it's a little bit of a, you know, trying to see if you can shake something loose at the last minute but i don't think that's going to happen. >> karen, chip, thanks as well.
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do appreciate your time folks. >> yes, sir. >> mitt romney telling voters walk with me, president obama says don't boo, vote. what's behind the final message. a brain trust. we'll talk about that and a little bit more on the other side of this break. if you are one of the millions of men who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites.
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. last weekend i was in florida for the start of in person early voting. today is the last day of early voting in the sunshine state. and in that other all-important battleground as well virginia today chris christie encouraging new jersey residents to take advantage of early voting this weekend as their people have been casting their votes early in record numbers all over this country. so, what will the legacy of early voting be on this race? i want to go ahead and bring in
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the brain trust panel. we're here in d.c. we should have someone from "the washington post" within us. thanks for being with us. i want to start with you. what do you think, what will be the final story on early voting's role in this election? >> i think the story is going that republicans wound up turning out as many early voters as the president. and the reason i say that is that the restrictions on early voting in florida have produce ad lot of anger particularly in black churches who took full advantage of the full days they had out of anger at the impression that republicans are trying to limit the right to vote. >> i know you did some digging specifically into some early voting numbers in ohio. talk to me a little bit about that. what did you find? >> we found if you look at the counties that went for obama last time there's a lead before
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900,000 to 400,000. if those voting patterns hold and they could break for romney you just don't know but if they hold it shows incredible mobilization among obama voters. i know we're short on time. there's a sentiment that was touched on last time they were trying to stop obama and this time they are trying to stop all of us. i think when that takes hold it's a strong geotv message. we'll see how that shakes out. >> jennifer, you wrote in "the washington post" that the president's early voting advantage doesn't really exist. explain that to me. what states are we talking about? >> if you look at iowa, florida, colorado, the advantage that democrats enjoy in early voting simply is not there. coming in early voting republicans are ahead in colorado which is almost unheard of. i think the numbers are going to speak for themselves on election day in those states like
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colorado, like florida, like iowa republicans tend to outnumber democrats on voting day. if they come in with less of an advantage in 2008 they are in very good shape. as far as trying to create a narrative that any vote success suppressed that's sour grapes in advance of tuesday and i don't think it help either side. >> craig, if i could just say one quick thing. you know, the sense that i got about people feeling like voter suppression is happening or like they are being discouraged is coming from voters, talking to black churches who had souls for the polls taken away in florida. just to give you a quick piece of data if you look at the early vote totals around people who voted in the last three elections, people who voted in two out of three and people who voted in only one out of three democrats are ahead. republicans are turning out super voters early in florida but democrats are turning out infrequent voters. that's important because that means they are not just getting numbers they would get anyway on
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election day they are getting infrequent voters. >> voting in florida is down from 2008. >> it's not. >> if you think democrats can youpt vote republicans on election day in florida you're in good shape. if not you're probably behind which is why the president is not there today. >> just briefly to jennifer's point you don't have to take our word on it on sour grapes. the supreme court put back "today" tempt by ohio republicans to restrain early vote. it shouldn't be a partisan issue. it's important you have as much voting as possible. >> we're going to have to leave it right there. i only had to ask one question. how about that. big thanks to all of you, the brain trust. big thanks to you as well. i'm craig melvin from here in washington, d.c. stay with msnbc, a special edition of "the cycle" coming up live next from democracy plaza in the heart of new york city. you're watching msnbc. the place for politics.
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